India’s recent decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has raised significant concerns about the future of water cooperation between the two countries. For over 60 years, the IWT has provided a predictable framework for managing the Indus River system, despite the turbulent history between India and Pakistan. Now, with this suspension, that reliability is at risk, raising questions about the implications for Pakistan’s water supply, agriculture, and energy.
What the Indus Waters Treaty Entails
The IWT, signed in 1960 with the World Bank’s mediation, divides the Indus River system’s waters between India and Pakistan. Under the treaty, India controls the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), while Pakistan is allocated the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), which provide around 80% of the shared water.
India has rights to use the western rivers for hydropower and limited irrigation but is prohibited from constructing large storage systems or diverting water in ways that negatively affect Pakistan’s access. The treaty includes detailed technical and legal mechanisms to resolve disputes, ensuring that both countries maintain a cooperative relationship regarding water management.
The treaty has no expiration date, and any modifications to it require mutual consent—something that has never happened.
Immediate Concerns for Pakistan
India’s suspension of the treaty does not mean it can instantly stop the flow of water. The Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab are massive rivers, and India’s current hydropower projects, like the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams, do not have the capacity to significantly alter the water volume during the peak flow seasons. These are run-of-the-river projects with minimal storage capacity.
However, the real concerns lie in the dry season when the water flow is lower, and the timing of water delivery becomes crucial. A shift in the timing of flows, even without reducing total volumes, could cause disruptions in agriculture and power generation in Pakistan.
Long-Term Risks for Pakistan
The immediate risk for Pakistan is the uncertainty introduced into its water system. The country’s irrigation system, which is one of the largest in the world, depends on a precise schedule of water flows. Any changes to this schedule—such as delayed water delivery or reduced flow during critical planting periods—could result in crop losses, reduced yields, and higher costs. Additionally, Pakistan’s hydropower generation, which relies on consistent water levels in reservoirs like Tarbela and Mangla, could also be impacted.
Unpredictable water availability could lead to greater inter-provincial tensions, particularly between Punjab and Sindh, both of which are already locked in contentious debates over water distribution.
Diplomatic and Strategic Implications
India’s move to suspend the treaty also carries significant strategic risks. As a downstream country on other major rivers like the Brahmaputra, India has historically respected the water rights of neighboring countries. By stepping outside the framework of the IWT, India risks setting a dangerous precedent for future water disputes in the region.
Any attempt by India to build new infrastructure, such as large-scale dams or diversion projects, would face enormous logistical, financial, and political challenges. Additionally, such actions could escalate tensions between the two countries, potentially leading to military confrontation.
A Growing Tension
This latest announcement did not come as a surprise. The treaty has faced growing pressure in recent years, particularly after the 2016 Uri attack, which led India to link water issues with broader security concerns. In 2023, India sought to renegotiate the treaty, citing factors like climate change and its national development needs, but Pakistan rejected this demand.
The current suspension of the treaty represents a dramatic shift from the long-standing diplomatic process that has governed water-sharing between the two nations. Whether this is a temporary measure or a permanent rupture remains uncertain, but it signals a significant change in how India and Pakistan will manage their shared water resources in the future.
What Lies Ahead?
While India cannot immediately disrupt Pakistan’s water supply on a large scale, the uncertainty surrounding the treaty has already created a new set of challenges. Pakistan’s water system, built around the predictable flow of the Indus, is now vulnerable to disruptions that could affect everything from agriculture to energy production. The consequences of continued uncertainty could be far-reaching, especially given the region’s growing water scarcity and the impact of climate change.
The Indus Waters Treaty has long been an example of cooperation between two adversaries. Its suspension, however, challenges the framework that has ensured stability in the region. As the situation unfolds, both nations will need to navigate the complex political, diplomatic, and hydrological issues that this suspension raises. The future of the treaty, and the water security it provides, now hangs in the balance.
