By: Hira A. Malik
By any stretch, the recent 12-day war between Iran and Israel—bookended by a dramatic US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and capped with a fragile ceasefire—has rattled the geopolitical chessboard. And while Pakistan isn’t directly embroiled in the conflict, we’d be naïve to assume we’re insulated from its aftershocks. From potential regional instability to diplomatic realignments, the ripples could become waves lapping at our own frontiers.
Trump’s Ultimatum Diplomacy and the Price of Defiance
Let’s begin with the trigger: former US President Donald Trump’s now infamous 60-day ultimatum to Iran. A deadline, not a dialogue. Trump’s way has always been less about negotiation and more about coercion—“do this, or else.” It’s the same hardline approach that flopped with North Korea and is now backfiring with Iran.
When Iran didn’t cave, Israel struck first. The US followed suit, targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Trump’s intention? Decapitate Iran’s capabilities and drag it back to the table—submissively. Iran’s response? A flat refusal to engage while under attack. Diplomacy died the day the bombs fell.
But while Trump’s gambit was short-term posturing, Israel’s goals run deeper: nothing less than regime change in Tehran. And here lies the rub for Pakistan.
Pakistan: An Unwilling Spectator or a Cautious Player?
Pakistan is not a direct party to this conflict. But as with all regional crises, the dangers seep in sideways.
A destabilized Iran—through regime change or civil strife—could crack open the southwest. Our already restive Balochistan province shares a porous border with Iran’s own Baloch region. Ethno-sectarian tensions, long manipulated by external actors, could be reignited. Pakistan, already grappling with internal militancy, cannot afford another front to guard.
And what if the regime falls and is replaced by a US- or Israel-aligned government? That’s not just hypothetical. It’s a realignment that could place Pakistan under strategic pressure from both east and west. Add to this the well-documented intelligence cooperation between India and Israel, and the idea of a hostile “pincer” becomes alarmingly plausible.
Diplomacy or Dilemma?
Pakistan’s foreign policy has long walked a tightrope—balancing its ties between Iran and the Gulf states, managing US expectations, and preserving its sovereignty. But economic vulnerabilities have tilted us more toward Riyadh and Washington than Tehran.
With Iran under pressure, Pakistan may be asked—or forced—to take clearer sides. This is particularly delicate given our growing defence and economic cooperation with Turkiye and Azerbaijan, two countries whose own relations with Iran are far from smooth. In short, we’re entering a period where nuance may not be an option.
The Bigger Picture: A Cracked Non-Proliferation Regime
What this crisis also exposes is the crumbling credibility of the global non-proliferation regime. The US and Israel have long pushed for a nuclear-free Iran. But their means—pre-emptive strikes, covert sabotage, and maximum pressure—are driving home the opposite message to smaller states: unless you possess a credible deterrent, your sovereignty is up for negotiation.
For a nuclear-armed Pakistan, the takeaway is different—but no less worrying. If non-proliferation collapses as a global norm, more regional players could quietly pursue the bomb. The result? A nuclear neighbourhood that’s more crowded, less stable, and harder to contain.
Lessons from History, Warnings for the Future
History is replete with examples where foreign-imposed regime change has led not to peace but to decades of chaos—think Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan. Iran, with its entrenched deep state and educated but frustrated populace, is no different. Civil strife there will not stay confined.
For Pakistan, the question isn’t whether we support one side or another. It’s how we insulate ourselves from the fallout. How we secure Balochistan. How we navigate increasingly hostile intelligence environments. How we stay engaged diplomatically without getting dragged militarily.
Final Thoughts: Preparing for the Unseen
As Iran contemplates its next move—whether to bend on enrichment, seek peace, or retaliate—we must prepare for multiple outcomes. None of them are benign.
The Middle East is again in transition, and history tells us that transitions are the most dangerous of all times. For Pakistan, this is no time for complacency. It’s a time for strategic foresight, internal consolidation, and above all, vigilance.
Because in geopolitics, it’s rarely the direct blow that breaks you. It’s the echo, the aftershock, the consequence no one saw coming.
