ISLAMABAD:
The federal government will release the Economic Survey for the fiscal year 2024–25 on Monday, revealing that Pakistan has fallen short of its annual growth target due to underperformance in key sectors.
Preliminary figures show that the country’s GDP grew by 2.68% in FY2023–24, well below the government’s target of 3.6%.
Despite the shortfall, Pakistan’s overall economy expanded in size—growing by $39.3 billion to reach $410.96 billion, compared to $371.66 billion in the previous year. In local currency terms, the economy increased by Rs9.6 trillion, bringing the total to Rs114.7 trillion. Per capita income also rose by $144, reaching $1,680.
The survey highlights an imbalanced economic performance, with some sectors surpassing expectations while others lagged significantly.
Agriculture Sector
Agriculture grew by just 0.56%, far below the 2% target. Major crops saw a steep contraction of 13.49%, significantly worse than the anticipated 4.5% decline. The cotton ginning industry also declined sharply by 19%.
However, livestock and other crops provided some relief, growing by 4.72% and 4.78%, respectively. Forestry and fishing remained subdued, failing to meet targets.
Industrial Sector
The industrial sector posted moderate progress with a 4.77% growth rate—slightly above the 4.4% goal. Small-scale manufacturing and slaughtering performed strongly, growing by 8.81% and 6.34%, respectively. Large-scale manufacturing, however, contracted by 1.53%.
The electricity, gas, and water supply sector delivered a surprising 28.88% growth—vastly exceeding the modest 2.5% target. The construction sector also outperformed, registering 6.61% growth.
Services Sector
The services sector expanded by 2.91%, missing its 4.1% target. Wholesale and retail trade grew by just 0.14%, reflecting weak demand and sluggish market activity.
Sectors such as IT, finance, real estate, education, and healthcare showed modest gains. Notably, public administration and social security stood out with a 9.92% growth rate—nearly triple its target of 3.4%.
Summary and Outlook
The Economic Survey presents a picture of uneven and fragile economic growth. While sectors like utilities, construction, and livestock performed relatively well, major contributors such as agriculture, large-scale manufacturing, and retail trade underperformed, ultimately dragging down the overall growth rate.
These findings will be pivotal in shaping the upcoming federal budget, as policymakers aim to tackle sector-specific weaknesses and set a path for more balanced and sustainable economic development.
