Pakistani investors have multiple entry points into the silver market. Exposure can be gained through physical silver, mutual funds with commodity allocations, and futures contracts traded on the Pakistan Mercantile Exchange. Futures, however, are suitable only for sophisticated investors due to leverage and volatility.
For most retail investors, physical silver remains the preferred route. Reputable jewellers and bullion merchants—such as ARY, Karat Jewelers and other established players—offer bars and coins at rates published daily in major newspapers. International pricing benchmarks are also easily accessible; notably, Kitco now publishes silver prices in tola alongside ounces, aligning global data with local market conventions.
From an investment perspective, silver bars are superior to jewellery. Bars are standardised, carry lower premiums and are therefore more liquid. Coins offer affordability but typically come with higher mark-ups. Crucially, investors should insist on a fineness of 99.9 per cent. Lower-grade silver, including sterling silver (92.5pc), does not meet investment standards.
Investment horizon and price outlook
Silver is not a short-term trade; it is best approached with a multi-year horizon. A minimum holding period of two years—preferably longer—is generally required to capture meaningful returns. That said, silver is known for cyclical rallies and corrections, often spanning two to six months, which can present tactical buying or selling opportunities. A staggered accumulation strategy helps manage volatility.
Market forecasts remain bullish. Michael Oliver, a veteran analyst specialising in momentum structural analysis, expects silver to advance to $100–120 per ounce in early 2026 from current levels near $80–90. Looking further ahead, Swedish analyst Bo Polny (Graddhy Report) projects $370 over the coming years, while Steve Penny of The Silver Chartist identifies an even more aggressive long-term target of $500–600.
While such projections vary, they reflect a broad consensus that silver remains structurally undervalued.
What is driving silver’s momentum?
Four major forces underpin silver’s bullish outlook.
First, industrial demand. Roughly half of global silver consumption now comes from industry, with the remainder split between jewellery and investment. In 2024, industrial demand reached a record high. Silver’s unmatched electrical conductivity makes it essential for photovoltaic solar panels. Electric vehicles are another growth engine, particularly as solid-state batteries—expected to outperform lithium-ion alternatives—require significantly more silver.
Second, investment and jewellery demand. Globally, households and institutional investors are reassessing traditional safe havens. Confidence in government bonds, especially US Treasuries, has weakened, while fiat currencies continue to lose purchasing power. This shift is driving renewed interest in tangible assets, including silver.
Third, monetary policy. Central banks remain inclined toward stimulus, liquidity injections and interest rate cuts to stabilise economies and financial markets. Such policies historically favour hard assets by eroding real yields and debasing currencies.
Fourth, market structure and pricing dynamics. Physical silver demand increasingly exceeds paper market supply. The gold–silver ratio, currently near 60:1, typically compresses sharply during precious metals bull markets—often first to 40:1 and eventually to 15:1. Such compression implies that silver can outperform gold by multiples. On this basis alone, silver prices would justify levels above $110 per ounce. Adding to this, physical silver in China has consistently traded at a $5–8 premium to Western markets, signalling tighter supply conditions.
Bottom line
All investments carry risk, and silver is no exception. Its volatility demands patience and disciplined portfolio allocation. However, as a strategic metal benefiting from industrial transformation, monetary tailwinds and constrained supply, silver offers a compelling risk–reward profile.
When held prudently within a diversified portfolio, silver has the potential to deliver outsized returns in the years ahead—making it not just a hedge, but a growth-oriented asset worth serious consideration.
