Pakistan’s bold goal of achieving 30% electric vehicle (EV) penetration by 2030 has sparked a mix of optimism and caution within the country’s auto sector. While the vision reflects a forward-looking approach to sustainability and innovation, industry insiders say the target is ambitious to the point of being unrealistic, especially given Pakistan’s financial and infrastructural constraints.
The policy mirrors global trends and aligns with efforts to curb emissions and modernize transportation. However, as seasoned industry expert Jamil Asghar points out, the challenges Pakistan faces are monumental — and lessons from regional neighbours underscore that point.
Take India, for example. Despite launching a series of high-profile initiatives like FAME I (2015), FAME II (2019), the Electric Mobility Promotion Scheme (2024), and most recently, PM-EDRIVE (2024) — all backed by multi-billion rupee investments — EV penetration remains modest. As of late 2024, only 3.7% of two-wheeler sales and 1.5% of car sales in India were electric, raising concerns about the practical outcomes of even well-funded strategies.
In contrast, Pakistan has little room for lavish subsidies or large-scale policy experiments. The current transition to New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in Pakistan is primarily driven by imports in the form of completely knocked down (CKD) kits, which are assembled locally. This method keeps costs high and limits affordability, with NEVs priced well beyond the reach of the average consumer.
Compounding the issue is the lack of localisation — a strength in Pakistan’s internal combustion engine (ICE) sector, where local content exceeds 95% for two-wheelers and about 65% for cars. NEVs, on the other hand, remain heavily import-dependent, resulting in higher price tags and reduced accessibility.
Jamil also highlights a crucial reality: EV adoption globally has thrived only where consistent and generous incentives — both demand-side (consumer subsidies) and supply-side (tax breaks for manufacturers) — have been in place. When these incentives are withdrawn, market momentum typically stalls.
Without similar support mechanisms, and in the absence of widespread charging infrastructure, Pakistan’s EV market is likely to remain niche. The risk, as Jamil warns, is that limited public funds could be directed toward subsidising high-end vehicles for a small portion of society, while offering negligible impact on broader environmental goals or pollution reduction.
In summary, while the 30% EV target by 2030 reflects a commendable aspiration, the current ground realities paint a more sobering picture. For Pakistan, the road to electrification will require not just ambition, but carefully calibrated policies, targeted incentives, localisation strategies, and a phased infrastructure rollout. Without these, the 2030 target may remain more of a symbolic gesture than an achievable milestone.
